In the prickly and often inflammable India-Pakistan relationship, every sporting, economic, or diplomatic step has to be considered carefully. The two South Asian neighbors have danced around equivocal cooperation and open hostility for decades. But in a stunning turnaround, a recent Indian action to punish Pakistan did the exact opposite — allowing Pakistan to emerge surprisingly in the ascendancy and gain what many call a geopolitical “jackpot.”
Let us find out how the punishment action proved to be a bonanza for the same country it was directed against.
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India’s Punishment Clampdown
India, tired of what it felt was constant provocation and aggression on the part of Pakistan — in the form of cross-border tensions, terror funding, or politics — decided to unleash a series of punitive measures. These involved economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, boycott of sports and cultural events, and vocal stance at the global level. The most significant among them was the revocation of Pakistan’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status in 2019 and joint efforts to cut bilateral economic and people-to-people engagements.
India is also reported to have used its multilateral engagement to put pressure on Pakistan, ranging from economic aid to FATF membership.
Strategically, the move was seen as efforts to diplomatically isolate and economically strangle Pakistan. However, the domino effect of the sanctions initiated a chain reaction that India could not have possibly anticipated.
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The Unexpected Windfall for Pakistan
Though the economy itself was impacted by some initial glitches, the economy and foreign policy of Pakistan developed otherwise than expected. To a very large extent, some of the very same constraints placed upon it by India forced Pakistan to make strategic adjustments — and earned more than expected. Here’s why:
1. Diversification of Trade and Alliances
When India cut trade relations, Pakistan had no option but to find new markets. It looked to regional allies like China, Iran, and Central Asia, widening economic and strategic relationships. The multi-billions worth China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) accelerated. Chinese investment, infrastructure schemes, and energy deals saved Pakistan from partially ending up in economic ruin.
Besides that, Pakistan also had willing trade partners in the Gulf states, Malaysia, and Turkey. Necessity-driven, its economy diversified and became Indian import-dependent — a long-term bonanza that it had not tried to go out and source earlier.
2. Emboldened Nationalism and Domestic Solidarity
Ironically, Indian repression worked to unite Pakistan’s internal political verbiage. Politicians, normally split along partisan lines, were brought together in a common cause to denounce what was seen as Indian aggression. The people themselves came out to the flag. That which had been meant to chasten was converted into an appeal to national self-pride and self-reliance rather.
This harmony helped Pakistan’s government in achieving some level of reforms in agriculture, industry, and defense purchases to reduce foreign dependence — particularly from the hostile neighbors.
3. Sports and International Sympathy
One of the most significant news-gathering impacts of India’s retaliatory approach was the ban on bilateral cricket and other sports. While Pakistani cricketers were banned from Indian leagues such as the IPL, Pakistan doubled the number of its own leagues such as the PSL (Pakistan Super League), which gained local popularity and global attention.
Through the stroke of luck, the isolation provided Pakistan an opportunity to nurture its soft power. The PSL began attracting international celebrities, and Pakistani cricket fans globally started taking notice. Viewership of recent seasons has been competing with that of international league giants — a boom Pakistan had not even started dreaming about.
In addition, the underdog story started getting traction with global media and contributed to Pakistan’s resolve and strategic shift.
A Lesson in Strategic Miscalculation?
Though India’s intentions were actually national security- and regionally stability-oriented, the result shows a greater geopolitically insightful lesson: punish without a policy of engagement in the long run, and the consequences are unpredictable. Exclusion of a 240 million population nation, a nuclear nation, and a nation of strategic location is not as simple as shutting off a spigot.
Pakistan’s ability to convert adversity into opportunity is not so much a matter of strength as the worth of adaptive diplomacy. Having adjusted quickly and gambled on different alignments, Pakistan weathered the storm and emerged the stronger in all but one way.
The backflow of implications for India’s coercive policy has turned the regional balance around. Pakistan, having survived and adjusted economically and diplomatically, now stands marginally more powerful at bargaining in South Asia.
India herself has to rethink the utility of retaliatory one-way action in a multipolar age. Economic sanctions and ostracism will push competitors into new alignments which will eventually boomerang against one’s own regional ascendancy.
Diplomacy, dialogue, and interaction — how trite they sound — perhaps might even be finer attributes to beget long-term prosperity and peace for both nations.
Closing Thoughts
The story of Pakistan’s bonus bonanza and India’s draconian repression is a old-fashioned example of strategic blowback. Retaliatory actions are usually thought to be acts of strength, but one must do it with an eye on the great geopolitical chessboard. India might have played its cards badly here, and Pakistan, through good fortune, struck jackpot.
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